For months now, it looks like all we have encountered are damaging headlines. However once we lower via the noise and take a look at the information, the story for the primary half of 2023 was easy: the markets and economic system did higher than many anticipated them to.
Will the identical maintain for the second half of the yr? We have a look forward in our Midyear Outlook.
Expectations Vs. Actuality
Regardless of dangers—just like the potential U.S. default on its debt—and worries about an impending recession, hiring remained robust, customers and companies stayed assured, and the economic system grew. Did it develop extra slowly than final yr? Positive. Nonetheless, all market indices had been up, company earnings beat expectations, and monetary circumstances remained regular.
And what about inflation? It managed to drag again, as did longer-term rates of interest. After elevating short-term charges at one of many quickest paces in many years, the Federal Reserve (Fed) adjusted its language in Might to recommend a pause could also be so as. None of this might have occurred had progress remained eventually yr’s stage. That slower progress ought to assist assist the markets and economic system within the second half of the yr.
The Highway Forward
Whereas the debt ceiling was resolved with no disaster, the banking system stays beneath stress. The U.S. relationship with China is rocky, and the battle in Ukraine continues. We’ve got almost as many dangers now as we did in January. Add in slower progress, and there is much less cushion for the economic system and markets to fall again on.
The dangers are actual, however so are the positives. Inflation is down. The Fed could pause. And the worldwide state of affairs, whereas worrying, isn’t any extra worrying now than it has been for the previous yr or so. Mixed with robust job progress and shopper confidence, we get an economic system that appears very like it did at the start of the yr. And that economic system proceeded to outperform. With low expectations, it might effectively achieve this once more.
For extra on our expectations for the U.S. economic system and the fairness and glued earnings markets, learn our 2023 Midyear Market and Financial Outlook, obtainable now.
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Reducing By means of the Noise
The headlines inform one story. However does the information inform one other? Obtain our Midyear Outlook to search out out.